Study Plan and Objectives
The Middle Fork John Day IMW was
established to help meet the need for effectiveness monitoring of restoration
programs and projects as outlined in the Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds.
This project will be linked with the work undertaken by sister states Washington
and Idaho through the Collaborative System-wide Monitoring and Evaluation Project
(CSMEP), Integrated Status and Effectiveness Monitoring Project (ISEMP), and
Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP).
Oregon presently has a number of Intensively Monitored Watershed programs and
studies throughout the state. Most of these are located in western Oregon with
a particular focus on coastal systems and species. A clear need exists in other
eco-regions of Oregon where listed salmonids are located to complement the restoration
and monitoring efforts for these species and for overall watershed health.
The Middle Fork John Day represents an opportunity for a variety of collaborators
from both the public and private sectors already working to implement restoration
and monitoring programs. In addition to past projects, the Middle Fork IMW area
also contains plans and programs for significant restoration actions over the
next several years. Collaborative funding is presently provided from the Bonneville
Power Administration, Bureau of Reclamation, Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board,
National Marine Fisheries Service, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Forest Service,
and others for both restoration and monitoring. These factors all build a foundation
for a high likelihood of success.
The following criteria had a significant bearing on the selection of the Middle
Fork John Day IMW and assisted in the formulation of the monitoring tasks found
within this proposal:
1. Confirming population limiting factors and determining the extent to which
restoration actions treat them.
2. Aligning the frequency and distribution of restoration actions with likely
population level responses.
3. Establishment of a robust and statistically rigorous design linking restoration
actions and the collection of monitoring data with appropriate analyses.
4. The specific roles and capabilities of the partner organizations that could
be linked to outcomes to ensure successful implementation.
Limiting Factors to be
addressed
Spring Chinook salmon and summer steelhead are the predominate salmonids
inhabiting the watershed, although bull trout Salvelinus confluentus are also
found in tributaries with limited seasonal use of mainstem habitats by fluvial
adults. Both steelhead and bull trout are listed as threatened species. Spring
Chinook salmon are not currently listed. Steelhead are the most widely distributed
salmonid species, occupying most tributaries and mainstem habitats. Chinook
distribution is slightly more confined to mainstem habitats and larger tributaries,
although juvenile Chinook often migrate into cool-water tributaries during warm
summer periods. Bull trout distribution is limited by their temperature tolerance.
Chinook and steelhead have similar temperature tolerances, but recent evidence
from the John Day River basin suggests that steelhead parr may have a greater
tolerance for warmer temperatures. Given the similar distribution but slightly
lower tolerance for warm temperatures, Chinook parr would be a suitable complementary
species to monitor along with listed steelhead.
Water quality in the Middle Fork John Day Subbasin generally exhibits satisfactory
chemical, physical, and biological quality as compared to Oregon Department
of Environmental Quality (DEQ) water quality standards. But Middle Fork mainstem
channel has elevated summer temperatures, along with most of its major tributaries.
Temperature has been identified as a limiting factor for salmonid production
in the watershed. The recent development of stock-recruitment curves has suggested
that freshwater rearing habitat is limiting Chinook production in the John Day
River basin. Further, juvenile surveys have indicated that much of the Middle
Fork habitat is vacated during warm summer months and much of the watershed
is listed as impaired by summer temperatures. Sediment has also been identified
as a factor limiting salmonid production and survival. The limiting factors
form a basis for the type and extent of monitoring planned in this IMW.
Steelhead and Chinook Monitoring
Objective 1: Estimate spawner escapement of summer steelhead and spring
Chinook.
Spawner escapement for Chinook is measured with a complete census of spawning
grounds by counting redds and carcasses. This effort is funded through other
sources. Currently there is not a complementary redd count for steelhead in
the watershed nor is a complete census count practical. Therefore it is proposed
to conduct steelhead redd surveys using a spatially explicit approach by implementing
the EMAP sampling framework, a statistically based and spatially explicit sampling
design, to quantify the status and trends in the abundance of steelhead redds.
This approach is currently implemented in the John Day River basin at the entire
basin scale. We propose to implement a complementary effort at the Middle Fork
Watershed scale. The South Fork watershed will be similarly monitored as a reference
basin for steelhead. Some as yet undetermined number of spatially balanced,
randomly selected reaches will be sampled repeatedly and steelhead redds quantified
in each watershed annually. These surveys will provide the added benefit of
better defining the distribution of steelhead spawning habitat in the Middle
Fork watershed.
Using EMAP approach, delineate summer steelhead habitat and draw representative
sample for
survey site selection.
Census spring Chinook redds in watershed (funded by other sources).
Survey randomly drawn 2-km reaches for steelhead in MFJD watershed.
Survey randomly drawn 2-km reaches for steelhead in SFJD watershed.
Develop GIS data base for redd distributions.
Provide redd and spawner abundance estimates.
Objective 2:
Estimate freshwater productivity (smolts/redd) of spring Chinook and summer
steelhead populations.
For the measurement of recovery of listed fish species, NMFS is primarily interested
in estimates of fish production or survival which relate directly to their recovery.
Estimating smolts/redd is the most direct approach we currently have to estimate
production and current efforts for monitoring Chinook allow for estimates of
their freshwater production (smolts/redd) within the Middle Fork watershed.
Spring Chinook redds are counted by conducting a repeated, census survey of
all utilized spawning habitat and this effort is currently funded through other
grants. Objective 1 will enumerate steelhead redds. These surveys will provide
us an estimate of the number of redds and spawners within the Middle Fork watershed.
A rotary screw trap (RST) is also currently operated using BPA funds and is
located near Ritter at the proposed downstream extent of our IMW. This trapping
effort provides a measure of the abundance of Chinook and steelhead smolts migrating
out of the watershed. A complementary trap is operated on the South Fork John
Day River and can act as a reference site. By combining redd counts and smolt
abundance of each species, we can provide annual estimates of freshwater productivity
(smolts/redd).
Operate rotary screw trap (RST) on MFJD to estimate abundance of salmonid smolts
emigrating from IMW (funded by BPA).
Operate rotary screw trap (RST) on SFJD to estimate abundance of salmonid smolts
emigrating from IMW (funded by BPA).
Use redd counts and smolt abundances to estimate smolts/redd for each species.
Objective 3:
Estimate parr-to-smolt survival of spring Chinook and summer steelhead.
While snorkel surveys of habitat utilized by rearing parr will provide a measure
of distribution of parr, it will not provide any measure of the quality of the
habitat for parr rearing. Parr to smolt survival will be estimated by PIT tagging
parr in various habitat areas and detecting tagged fish in our RST as they migrate
out of the basin as smolts. This tagging effort would be coordinated with distribution
surveys. A representative number of parr in several tributaries of varying temperatures
would be PIT tagged and scale samples would be taken to age fish. Survival to
emigration could then be compared among tributaries to determine if survival
rates differ among tributaries. Tributaries would be selected to provide a wide
range of rearing temperatures. An additional benefit of this effort would be
to provide a basin-wide parr-to-smolt survival rate.
PIT tag representative sample of steelhead and Chinook parr.
Monitor temperatures of tributaries where parr are collected.
Trap and record PIT tagged smolts in RST.
Objective 4:
Delineate seasonal parr rearing habitat.
Regional managers have requested a comprehensive study of the summer distribution
of Chinook parr in the watershed. We currently have information indicating that
parr vacate warmer reaches of mainstem habitats and enter cooler tributaries.
This suggests that temperature is limiting smolt production in the basin. Using
snorkel surveys, we propose to conduct a comprehensive presence/absence census
of all habitat used by parr during summer months (July, August). This information
will enable us to estimate the amount of habitat not currently used by rearing
juveniles during the critical summer period. This in turn will allow a measure
of the potential for increasing freshwater production of salmonids and could
be used to direct the placement of water temperature recorders.
Identify potential tributaries for parr rearing based on current knowledge.
Conduct presence/absence snorkel surveys.
Update GIS coverage using collected data.
Objective 5:
Provide additional measures of the factors limiting freshwater production.
Temperature has been identified as a limiting factor for salmonid production
in the watershed but we still do not have a comprehensive view of temperature
in the basin as it relates to salmonids. Past fish surveys have shown that many
locations within the proposed IMW are not utilized for juvenile salmonid rearing
during warm summer months. Coordinated with the above parr surveys, water temperature
loggers will be placed at the downstream extent of observed parr distribution
in the mainstem Middle Fork and its tributaries. Temperature loggers will be
deployed and monitored throughout the parr rearing seasons. Data from loggers
will be incorporated into a database including a GIS coverage.
Identify locations for deploying and deploy loggers.
Incorporate data into database and GIS layer
Coordination
Coordination is one of the most important tasks during implementation of the
project. The IMW coordinator is the key contact and is responsible for data
management and administrative duties.
Project outcome
To successfully establish baseline steelhead and Chinook population data requires
at least one complete life cycle or approximately 5 years. Monitoring of Chinook
redds and trapping of emigrating Chinook and steelhead smolts is currently ongoing.
Once parr are tagged during the summer of 2008, it will take two additional
years before all steelhead smolts will emigrate from the basin and therefore
provide data for freshwater survival. Production, measured as smolts/redd, will
take two years for Chinook and three years for steelhead. Our ability to measure
and demonstrate positive affects relating to restoration activities will depend
on the magnitude of the restoration activities and their resultant impact on
fish populations. It is expected that trends in production and survival data
will have a greater probability of detecting positive outcomes compared to simple
status during a given year.
The desired outcome will be a detectable change in the productivity or survival
of the monitored species when compared to the reference population. Productivity
estimates for Chinook will be available during the initial year. Similar estimates
for steelhead will take three years from the first redd surveys for this species.
Parr-to-smolt survival estimates will be available 1-2 years after project initiation.
Data on the distribution of parr will be available during the first year after
the initial sampling season.
